While the initial predictions for 2026 were positive, the war in Iran may have unforeseen impact on the restaurant industry. Though fighting in the mid-East won’t necessarily turn customers away from restaurants, rising gas prices might. “That’s exactly what’s happening this week due to supply fears (and realities) created by the Iran War (oil prices tilted past $100 a barrel earlier this week for the first time since 2022 but have since eased to around $90),” reports Nation’s Restaurant News.
Unfortunately, this comes at the heels of less-positive-than-predicted February numbers, and so the challenge is larger than it might have been had war come to an otherwise stable economy. NRN shares, “The February jobs report was bleak, with about 92,000 positions cut from the U.S. economy, and inflation has gripped everything from groceries to energy and rent prices, and U.S. household debt has reached record highs.” Now with increases at the gas pumps, consumers will be less likely to spend at their favorite restaurants.
“Higher gas prices correlate with reduced spending on foodservice. According to Technomic research, an increase in gas prices, especially those that result in $4-plus per gallon on average nationally, impacts consumer restaurant spending,” explains NRN. “As of today, the national average gas price is about $3.60, according to AAA. It is above $4 in six states. Technomic found that nearly 90% of consumers are impacted by rising gas prices and spend less on goods and services to manage such increases.” Alicia Kelso further outlines that direct impacts of high gas prices here.
Of course, restaurant owners can’t change rising prices due to war any more than they can recover from restrictions from a pandemic six years ago. All they can do is respond accordingly and prepare as best as they can. National Restaurant Consultants principal and owner Richard Weil has this advice as restauranteurs stare down these added challenges to 2026.
“Operators across the country are feeling the anxiousness of consumers. It is concerning and there is no straightforward solution to combatting these challenges. However, to begin, look beyond the front door and phones and reaching customers directly—now is a great time to attack your operational inefficiencies to improve in other areas, from deep cleaning your dining space to organizing your bar and storerooms. I believe consumer traffic declines will be short-lived; our industry is survivalist. I believe not only in springtime turning eternal hope, but also positive outcomes sooner versus later.”