It has been a year of economic uncertainty, greatly impacting consumer spending—especially in the restaurant industry. However new recent data reported on by Nation’s Restaurant News (NRN) suggest a slight uptick in consumer confidence and willingness to spend at restaurants. NRN writes, “Big Chalk data from June 2025 shows participation rates — consumers who typically dine out at least once a week — have improved since the fourth quarter of 2024, 77.3% compared to 76.4%. Further, their visits per week have increased to 2.19 from 1.99 in Q4 — or what Big Chalk partner and lead analyst Rick Miller calls ‘statistically significant.’”
Big Chalk’s report tracks what they call “trade-off” customers, those who adjust their budgets in seven spending categories: home/housing, auto, clothing/fashion, dining out, leisure travel, groceries, and movies. “In June, 87% of trade-off consumers planned to cut restaurant spending, compared to 85.2% in November. For all U.S. households, the forecast isn’t much brighter, with 43.7% planning to cut back on restaurants, compared to 39.6% in November and 42.9% in June 2024,” NRN says.
This is enough to increase confidence in restaurant sales. “In the restaurant industry, participation rates have ticked back up and visits per week are improving,” Miller said during a recent interview. “This shows that there might be some stabilization in the industry.”
The data only reveals so much, however, and Miller did add that research bodes better for grocery stores, restaurant’s biggest competition when it comes to customer spending. NRN adds, “According to federal data…menu prices have outpaced grocery prices for 27 months in a row and the gap between the two categories remains above the historical average.”
However, Miller believes that there is overall stability in household budgets. “Miller’s cautious optimism for restaurants comes from stable household budgets. Big Chalk estimates the current median household income to be $85,632, including an approximate $3,400 increase in wages since the fall.”
Restaurant owner-operators and managers have the difficult task of making adjustments to entice customers while still remaining profitable themselves. Watching consumer trends is important for making micro-adjustments to restaurant operations and menus rather than sweeping changes within restaurant operations.
Richard Weil, principal of National Restaurant Consultants, offers this advice to restaurant owners watching spending trends. “Consumer spending will vary by region, however the overall trends appear to be heading in a positive direction. Tracking your regulars’ visits through the operators POS can also be a resource that operators can utilize along with merchant services reporting. Once data can be harvested, operators can implement meaningful promotions and marketing tactics to attract and retain customer frequency.”
A restaurant consultant can help make microadjustments based on current trends as well as history. Our restaurant consultants have decades’ worth of experience in the industry, making us experts at guiding decision-making during economic uncertainty.