As we enter the holiday season, our restaurant consultants believe in looking forward with hope. The good news is, The Food Away From Home Association (IFMA) agrees! Restaurant owners will “increase their purchases of supplies and services by an inflation-adjusted 1.1% in 2026 to meet a moderate rise in consumer demand, according to a just-released forecast from IFMA.”
This anticipation of growth extends to menu prices and a slowdown of inflation, with the IFMA reporting “food costs to rise by 3% next year, compared with the 3.9% it projected for 2025.” Despite the current rising inflation, the association is “sticking with its February projection of a 0.9% inflation-adjusted or ‘real’ rise in purchases by FAFH operations, which range from fine-dining one-of-a-kinds to c-stores, college dining rooms, employee cafeterias, and school lunchrooms.” This will bring relief to both restaurants owners as well as customers, making dining out in 2026 a more frequent and enjoyable experience for everyone.
With easing costs for operations and dining out, IFMA believes the inflation slow-down will lead to overall growth in 2026, “albeit moderate. And virtually all the increased sales for operators will likely come from price increases. Patron traffic is expected to continue ebbing, though not as severely as has this year, according to the forecast.
As diner confidence and spending is restored, predictions are that they will first return to fast casual establishments, which will see the most 2026 growth, around 2%. Similarly, virtual kitchens and delivery orders will remain popular and grow in the coming year: IFMA estimates up to $2 billion.
The restaurant industry has always been resilient and a mainstay of peoples’ lives. While the last several years have been unprecedented and placed a strain on business operations and budgets, these predictions provide an optimistic picture of what can be expected for those restaurants who have remained diligent and pressed through the uncertainty as of late.
Richard Weil, owner and principal of National Restaurant Consultants (NRC), shares optimism for 2026. “At NRC we concur with the IFMA forecast relating to rising costs of goods as well as consumer spending patterns. We remain more than optimistic about a return of consumer visits to restaurants across multiple segments. While it is well-publicized and tracked relating to lower income and middle-income spending, we believe this will ease based on economic positive trends that will assist this large demographic consumer. These items include but are not limited to lower gas prices, ease of inflation for consumer goods, continued tariff negotiations that will favor US consumers, as well as general optimism. All of these forecasted components we believe will guide food away from home spending forward.”