In an effort to share a realistic picture of the state of spending for the first quarter of the year, Nation’s Restaurant News (NRN) released data showing that grocery spending outpaced restaurant spending in the month of February. Despite positive predictions to start 2026, unforeseen economic dips have impacted consumer spending, particularly in the restaurant sector. While there are have been some excited ideas to outrun downward trends—new flavor profiles, a tendency to snack—restaurant owners must also base their next business decisions on the facts at-hand.
Generally, food prices are up overall. Data shows a 0.2% increase in just a month’s time. Specifically, “grocery prices outpaced menu prices during the month, up 0.5% versus 0.3%, respectively,” writes Alicia Kelso for NRN. Further, “According to the National Restaurant Association, grocery price increases have averaged 0.5% each month since August.”
For the consumer, it’s not just the affordability of groceries versus restaurants, but also groceries in comparison to restaurants. It remains that “grocery price inflation remains far below menu price increases, with 2.4% year-over-year growth overall.” With increased costs everywhere, consumers will opt for the most affordable option overall.
To summarize her article, Kelso points out the economic factors that will continue to prey on affordability and nudge consumer spending habits in one direction or the other. Similarly, restaurant owners can consider these nuances when it comes to serving guests in a downturn. While the numbers may go down, the service cannot. Value will be more important than ever in the eyes of consumers when spending money outside of the home.
Richard Weil, principal and owner of National Restaurant Consultants, believes, “The price value relationship is well-documented. This is especially true in the QSR, fast casual, and casual dining categories. Creating meaningful experiences is paramount. This is how restaurants stay relevant and top-of-mind. These strategies cannot only include outreach, but organic marketing also works extremely well—and is very affordable. Contact any of our expert restaurant consultants to look into what opportunities may work for your operation.”